Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 0.305965 0.359058 0.416892 0.484348 0.560634 0.643998 0.741745
2025-04-20 0.222799 0.288911 0.366790 0.464491 0.582904 0.720863 0.892764
2025-04-27 0.161114 0.231065 0.320115 0.439942 0.594888 0.786257 1.037964
2025-05-04 0.120019 0.190818 0.288252 0.428639 0.621684 0.873356 1.221028
2025-05-11 0.088754 0.157270 0.259452 0.417120 0.647334 0.963342 1.420379
2025-05-18 0.060743 0.121628 0.220844 0.385576 0.641612 1.011998 1.572780
2025-05-25 0.040094 0.091906 0.184809 0.351333 0.627114 1.047391 1.712721
2025-06-01 0.028223 0.074077 0.164335 0.338243 0.643547 1.131102 1.933911
2025-06-08 0.019504 0.059244 0.145500 0.324353 0.656977 1.212786 2.162940
2025-06-15 0.014698 0.051240 0.137990 0.329989 0.705371 1.357287 2.507309
2025-06-22 0.009519 0.039521 0.119026 0.309177 0.703149 1.418043 2.724411
2025-06-29 0.006285 0.031289 0.105262 0.295967 0.713285 1.501892 2.989982
2025-07-06 0.003956 0.024316 0.092411 0.282713 0.723704 1.592536 3.286253
2025-07-13 0.002718 0.020391 0.086432 0.284473 0.766360 1.749503 3.718313
2025-07-20 0.001753 0.016529 0.078888 0.280412 0.796235 1.886761 4.130619
2025-07-27 0.001174 0.013916 0.074276 0.283236 0.842999 2.064316 4.637625
2025-08-03 0.000759 0.011581 0.069433 0.284189 0.886069 2.240407 5.160306
2025-08-10 0.000403 0.008667 0.060215 0.268763 0.885916 2.326299 5.516441
2025-08-17 0.000189 0.006210 0.050910 0.249459 0.871797 2.380462 5.815419
2025-08-24 0.000100 0.004892 0.046235 0.244685 0.896373 2.524709 6.313765
2025-08-31 0.000048 0.003783 0.041610 0.238328 0.915446 2.659054 6.804416
2025-09-07 0.000028 0.003294 0.040619 0.246433 0.979173 2.906717 7.559073
2025-09-14 0.000010 0.002375 0.035170 0.233186 0.975222 2.990683 7.965621